GGST/Axl Low/Counterstrategy

Fighting Axl

Axl is a zoner whose goal is to keep his opponent away from him, shave off their health with his long range normals/specials, frustrate them to the point where they make mistakes in their approach, and then capitalize on them.

Round Start

At round start, you are basically already in Axl’s win condition. In between his anti-airs, ability to retreat safely, and his quick lows, you’re most likely getting hit first. Axl mainly controls the ground using his special move Sickle Flash (aka Rensen)GuardAllStartup24Recovery29Advantage-19~-9, which hits full screen and has a number of different follow ups. However, if you are outside his 6KGuardAllStartup11Recovery25Advantage-13 range, all his Sickle Flash follow ups can be nullified or jumped over. Try not to block this move. He can really lock you down if you do, but if you do block it, KEEP blocking in case he does a follow up.

The follow ups are as follows:

Winter Cherry (Bomb)GuardAllStartup18 [22]Recovery24Advantage-3 [+10]- Detonates the sickle. Axl can delay the explosion up to 40 frames. Axl uses the non-delayed timing to catch jumps and dashes, while the delayed explosion does a lot of chip damage and leaves him Plus. To counter this, try dash blocking with into it with Faultless Defense. Faultless Defense will negate the chip damage. You can also jump and IAD forward if Axl does delay the explosion.

Soaring Chain StrikeGuardAllStartup8Recovery34Advantage-11- Pulls you towards Axl if you jump. Counter this with a double/super jump. This also whiffs if you’re crouching. If you block this when airborne, you'll be pulled right next to Axl. Normal air-blocking will leave Axl incredibly plus to perform guaranteed pressure on you. But, if you use Faultless Defense, you will fall faster in the air and improve your frame advantage after blocking it. Depending on the height, this usually allows you to Throw or counter hit the Axl player out of his 2KGuardLowStartup5Recovery11Advantage-4. After that, they'll try to RPS with you by using Backdash or Jump so vary your responses after landing. This is another way to significantly reduce Axl's zoning RPS and "approach" him easily. Video explanation timestamped here. If you block the Chain very close to Axl, you'll fly over and switch sides with him, be prepared to block in the opposite direction. Instant Block makes you fall straight down to the ground but usually doesn't grant you a punish since you're too far away.

In this clip, Ky and Axl both hit 5f normals at the end of Soaring Chain Strike. When Ky doesn't use Faultless Defense, Axl counter hits him. However, when Ky blocks with Faultless Defense, the frame advantage is improved and Ky is able to counter hit Axl when he presses 2K.

Spinning Chain StrikeGuardLowStartup7Recovery19Advantage-6- Vacuums the opponent in towards Axl. The vacuum effect works regardless of whether you’re in the air or on the ground. If you’re far away, hold your ground by walking back or backdashing. If you’re closer, don't wait for the vacuum to pull you in. Jump and/or airdash and let the vacuum bring you in to punish him. This move has has no hitbox above Axl’s legs. It’s a free turn or punish if held too long.

Ky punishing Spinning Chain Strike

Neutral

Approaching Axl

Axl's normals might be long, but they all are generally very minus on block and have long recovery times, making them very committal. Getting in on Axl requires patient, reactive play. Rotating between dash blocking and jumping is essential for getting in on him. He has strong tools to cover the ground and the air, but he can't cover both at once.

In addition to Rensen, the main normals Axl will use to zone you out are 2P, 2H, 2S, j.S, and 5P.

2PGuardLowStartup10Recovery14Advantage-6 is a quick low hitting poke, great at checking ground movement.

2HGuardLowStartup11Recovery26Advantage-18 [-8] has a slightly longer reach than 2P but is slower to come out. From farther away, this is what Axl will mainly use to control the ground with.

2SGuardAllStartup9Recovery23Advantage-16 is -16 on block, and is also special cancellable. It’s a big anti air that hits above and in front of Axl.

j.SGuardHighStartup14Recovery18Advantage- is one of Axl’s best zoning tools. Jumping frequently is an important part of fighting Axl, which will force Axl to resort to j.S spamming to keep you out. This normal also extends his hurtbox. You can anti-air with with 6P in midrange. From further away, it may clash, but this is an opportunity to initiate a planned response. You can also punish with a DP. Even if he blocks it, the block time is extended in the air. Sometimes, you might even be able to land an Overdrive on this move depending on which you use. It can also be jumped over and leaves him extremely vulnerable. Be prepared to deal with IAD back into j.S, since it's extremely quick and has to be blocked standing. There's a dead zone directly in front of this normal where you can't be hit.

5PGuardAllStartup7Recovery19Advantage-11 [-3] is by far the most staple lynchpin move in his arsenal and how well your character gets around it is a large determining factor to how easy the match-up is for you in neutral. Axl loves to use this move in many situations as his fastest long-range interrupt, fairly non-committal poke, pre-emptive anti-air, reactive anti-airing, general zoning, IAD shutdown and the list goes on. If blocked you can immediately attempt an aggressive jump option to dissuade Axl from special cancelling, but he can reactively anti-air should he never commit. A relatively universal option is to run at Axl which is usually enough to low-profile 5P while approaching, whilst risking getting caught by 2P or 2H zoning attempts which in turn loses to jumping and IAD approaches. The risk-reward of beating either 5P or 2H and getting a clean approaching punish is usually relatively higher than Axl's risk-reward so you always have time to guess and brute force it. However if you don't have access to a run mechanic or have bad movement options in general the aforementioned vague strategy will not work. If your character is on the shorter end of the spectrum ( Millia, Giovanna, Chipp, May etc) almost anything you do grounded will make 5P whiff, thus eliminating a huge part of Axl's zoning RPS. Really leverage this and force Axl to zone with 2H and Rensen to open him up to easy aerial approaches.

What to Do When Axl Approaches

Once you've closed the distance to about midrange, Axl might be pressured to begin to approach you, lest he put himself in the corner. He may start dashing towards you before stopping to toss out a 2P or dashing right up to you and putting you in a strike/throw mix with his regular throw or his 5 frame, low profiling 2K. He could also initiate a blockstring with his f.SGuardAllStartup10Recovery19Advantage-8. You'll need to be aware of what to do in these situations. Because Axl's normals are generally negative, he'll be forced to special cancel to keep himself safe. More information on what to do in the "Spotting Obvious Special Cancels" section.

Brute-forcing Aerial Approach

Do not just air dash in on Axl. This is a death sentence. It's super easy for him to anti-air you, and he'll just send you right back to the other side of the screen if he does. Aside from building up the RISC gauge, it does not cost you any resources to just jump frequently towards Axl whilst blocking anti-air attempts. Watch out for blocked 2S into late cancel 2H which will catch you low on landing, and make sure to immediately jump again if Axl does 2S > 2H on air-block to prevent the Rensen or Winter Mantis special cancel from connecting.

You can bait out a 2S with empty hops and then punish appropriately if you’re near him.You can also bait him out by jumping near him, and then double jumping back. Being directly above Axl is a good place to be because his anti-airs will not reach you there. Once you’ve conditioned Axl to not pre-emptively throw out normals, THEN you can do the instant airdash in. Mix up your air approaches. Don’t do the same air approach every time. Eventually Axl will miss an anti-air which gives you the free signal to land that counterhit jump-in attack. However, characters with less air options or low mobility in general might struggle to utilise this baseline strategy, and this strategy is highly susceptible to getting air-thrown.

Other Things to Keep in Mind

When you're at fullscreen, always keep your eyes peeled for Axl's full screen command grab, Winter MantisGuardGround ThrowStartup28Recovery34Advantage-. He tosses a sickle into the ground and pulls it back, dragging you towards him if you're caught. This is something that you need to be vigilant of when you’re concentrating on dealing with Rensen. From fullscreen, you want to be jumping in with empty hops, and since you’re already jumping, you can react to the command grab more easily since you’re already hopping and trying to bait out the long range attacks anyway. You can backdash over the grab as well. It’s only active as it returns, and whiffing it leaves him in a counter state for over half a second. If you're ever hit with a Burst or a combo that sends you fullscreen, default to jumping during your wake up, as Axls LOVE to use this during your wake up.

Another thing to be aware of his Axl's Overdrive One Vision (aka Time Stop)GuardStartup5Recovery30Advantage-. There are two parts to this Overdrive. The first part of this Overdrive activates the countdown determining how long Axl has to use the follow up. The second part has Axl actually activate the Time Stop. The first part lasts for 5 seconds, and if Axl hasn't used it by then, its effect disappears and he'll have wasted his Tension. Don't be scared if Axl ever does the install his in neutral or immediately in front of you. He suffers 22 frames of lag after the install which gives you a sizeable window to contest for pressure and possibly hit him, making him waste 50 meter. If you do get hit by the Time Stop, do NOT Burst while under its effects. You will Burst frame 1 when the Time Stop ends and the majority of the time, it will not work. If you're fullscreen and Axl activates the install, he's likely trying to bait you into blocking so that he can use Winter Mantis to pull you in and set you up for a damaging combo. Be aware of this, and react to whatever Axl does once Time Stop is prepped. One Vision is 0 on block, so after defending against it, be patient and wait for Axl's next move. Don’t immediately go charging in.

Offence

When you finally manage to close the distance and begin running your offense, you need to always keep Axl's 2K in mind. It's his fastest button, with 5 frames of start up, and allows him to low profile many midrange pokes. Your offense needs to be air tight, and you need to avoid leaving gaps in your pressure as much as you can. If Axl manages to get a successful hit in, any string he does will send you right back to fullscreen and you will have to work to get in on him all over again.

You'll also have to worry about Axl's 2-hit invincible reversal Overdrive Sickle StormGuardAllStartup11+1Recovery26Advantage-2 when running your offense. The first hit has a long horizontal reach to catch you if you’re in the air. The second hit goes across the ground, and is safe on block. Bait it out, and when you do, block the first hit, and then jump in with an aerial during the second to punish it.

Defence

When on the defensive, keep an eye out for Axl's 6HGuardHighStartup27Recovery13Advantage-3. This normal is an overhead that's -3 on block. Blocking it close allows a guaranteed throw punish. It is also approximately +0 on hit and +1 on crouching hit, so you can conceivably always contest Axl with a 5 frame normal or mash throw to defeat him if he ever tries to take his turn after pressing 6H. Video demonstration here.

Spotting Obvious Special-cancel Windows

Whenever Axl presses 2D, 2H or 5H he is forced to special cancel if he wants to further his pressure and not forfeit his "turn". However, jumping forwards the moment you recognize those normals will shut down 3 out of 4 of Axl's special cancels (Winter Mantis, Rensen, and Rainwater) whilst losing to a delayed-cancel SnailGuardAllStartup14Recovery29Advantage-24 which puts Axl at -24 if you block this move.

Delayed-cancel SnailGuardAllStartup14Recovery29Advantage-24 catching IAD

RainwaterGuardAllStartup24Recovery21Advantage+3 getting caught by IAD

If you can consistently block-punish Snail (using moves like Sol's Vortex, Nagoriyuki's SpinGuardLowStartup14Recovery17Advantage-3, Ky's Stun DipperGuardLow, AllStartup7Recovery30Advantage-19 [-14], May's S DolphinGuardAllStartup7Recovery20 (24 OH)Advantage-3, I-No's Chemical LoveGuardAllStartup11Recovery22Advantage-9, Potemkin's Hammer FallGuardAllStartup18~62Recovery26Advantage-9, etc) and jump over his other 3 options Axl's risk-reward of performing an offensive special cancel will be so terrible that he will have to resort to stagger pressure or leave himself at mild minus frames and hoping to Antiair you with 2S.

However, whether you can actually get a punish against Axl's RainwaterGuardAllStartup24Recovery21Advantage+3 special cancel off further-spaced 5H and 2H specifically is slightly more character-specific. Refer to this video timestamp here for a detailed visual explanation of the above.

You should also not let Axl get away with special cancelling his 2H ever, especially at further distances. If you jump he cannot catch you with Winter Mantis or Rensen, and Snail will be too far away to connect unless he reads your IAD. If you have a quick forward-advancing Super you can also punish Axl for attempting to 2H special-cancel, and if your super is less than frame 18 startup, you will punish Axl regardless of him special cancelling or not. Video details timestamped here. Yes, this still applies if you get normal-hit by the long-ranged 2H, you will be able to jump both specials still or reversal Super his special cancel gap, but cannot punish him if he doesn't cancel.

Dealing with Rainwater

RainwaterGuardAllStartup24Recovery21Advantage+3 is one of the most difficult moves to work around while fighting Axl. There are two different aspects to the move that both stand out, as it can be used both in neutral and in blockstrings to catch unaware opponents.

Neutral

In neutral, Rainwater is a retreating poke that’s fully disjointed and airborne, meaning that it can easily catch long-range pokes and committal ground options such as Sol's's 6SGuardAllStartup15Recovery20Advantage-9 or Ky's Stun DipperGuardLow, AllStartup7Recovery30Advantage-19 [-14]. However, due to the long startup of the move, most Axl players will use it preemptively as opposed to reacting to buttons with it. Because of this, the move should be treated more akin to his j.S, a tool that further covers him versus ground approaches, yet loses to air approaches. The move can be read in a similar way and IAD’d over, and showing this option can lead to Axl using it far less, with the risk of him guessing wrong a full punish or the opponent starting pressure.

Blockstrings

When running pressure, Rainwater is a +3 vacuuming special that is practically unreactable for all but the best players in the game. It is a very dominant move, and one of the defining characteristics of his pressure, leading to seemingly endless blockstrings and risk building unless you know how to escape.

The first tool to use to get out of Axl’s pressure is fuzzy jumping. Rainwater will almost always have a gap large enough to jump out of it, and the reward he gets off of most buttons is very subpar without meter, as SnailGuardAllStartup14Recovery29Advantage-24 does not lead to a hard knockdown. However, with meter, it is recommended against jumping, as if you get caught by Snail, the combo can be deadly.

At this point your best option is to Airdash on Axl and start pressure with a strong jump-in, as most deep-hitting moves will beat his slower than average 6PGuardAllStartup12Recovery22Advantage-13. However, keep in mind that if you are slow to react or have a slower than average airdash, it can be a better option to reset to neutral as Axl may be able to press 5P, 5K, or 2S.

The next way to escape Rainwater in pressure is by using FD. Most strings such as c.S>f.S>214S will whiff if you FD both buttons then walk backwards. After whiffing, some characters can get a punish by either dashing forward or pressing a fast, long range button or special such as May's S.DolphinGuardAllStartup7Recovery20 (24 OH)Advantage-3 or Nagoriyuki's SpinGuardLowStartup14Recovery17Advantage-3. Even without the punish, the threat of Rainwater has been removed and you can take your turn back by either taking space or starting pressure.

Fuzzy Guarding a common string

FD Pushing Axl out of Rainwater range

The flaws with both of these strategies is the reward can be very subpar depending on the character. Not having a strong airdash or long pokes to hit Rainwater in recovery may leave you with the only option to challenge the move directly. This is most commonly done by holding 9 during Axl’s pressure, and catching him with a rising button such as Faust’s j.HGuardHighStartup9Recovery15Advantage+8 (IAD) or Baiken’s j.SGuardHighStartup8Recovery19Advantage+1 (IAD). The reward you get off of this hit can be much higher, as characters can get a counterhit air-to-air, and Roman Cancel the hit to lead into a full combo.

Specific strings

5h Rainwater

Because the move is level 4, the special will catch jump and drag the opponent back down into his pressure once more, or catch in jump squat and lead to a full combo. This is especially scary in the corner, where FD is far less useful as it will not push Axl out of Rainwater range. However, just because it is less useful does not mean you should choose not to use it, as it is much harder for axl to run pressure after Rainwater in this scenario.

2D Rainwater

Because of the dead-zone on snail combined with the frame data of Axl’s 2DGuardLowStartup10Recovery17Advantage-9, instant blocking can lead you to a very favorable situation. 2D is -9 on block, so you can punish Axl pressing nothing while being safe from snail counterhit. As well as this, spacing is advantageous enough that any rising button or high-hitting anti air will be able to counterhit Axl before Rainwater even comes out.

Blocking Rainwater

There are some points in strings where you will be forced to block Rainwater, such as it being used as a meaty, after 5H in the corner, or just making a mistake. However, blocking rainwater is not always as bad as it seems. Axl is +3 in the situation, but depending on the spacing, he may have a hard time running pressure, or may be forced to RPS against your defensive options.

Reversals are very strong after Rainwater, as most Axl players will be trying to continue pressure after the special is blocked. Threatening the option can be a great way to steal turns back, as Axl may spend his time dashblocking to try and bait out the reversal, or going for more risky options like throw to beat these options. As well as this, the vacuum can start to work against Axl, because most DPs will be guaranteed to either hit or block, making DP RC a very strong tool to abuse.

Without a reversal, your options are severely limited, and it is often best to just hold down back and wait for Axl to continue the blockstring, as his pressure can be very linear and his mixups can be reacted to. However, at further spacings, threatening 6P can be a strong option, as the most common option at those ranges is either f.S or 5K. However, the reward Axl gets for calling our a 6P attempt with 2H is very high, so it should not be relied upon. Jumping out of pressure after rainwater can also be an option to use at certain points, but just like pressing 6P, the reward Axl gets off of calling it out can be very high.